We revisit our discussion on sleeper truck values, this time in mid-2021, with Mitch Helman of Sandhills Global. #SleeperTrucks #Valuation #Appraisals #Auctions #BlackbirdTV
About this segment of Blackbird TV
Recorded: July 23, 2021
Published: August 3, 2021
Mitch Helman from Sandhills Global. Here to talk about sleeper trucks and current values. Hi, Mitch. David, how are you today? Oh, it’s great to see you. I appreciate your help. We talked about this very market segment maybe six months ago, and you sent me a report on sleeper trucks. And I noticed some really, really interesting things. Let’s dive into the details for our appraisal friends. Page eight of this of this report shows an inflection point, Mitch. Things are changing. Talk to me. Yeah. You know, sleeper trucks are just interesting right now just for the mere fact that, like you said, there is there’s been a change. We’ve been it’s been about 12, 13 months since Covid kind of got full board manufacturing shut down. And the new backorders have really, you know, started taking place. Well, because of that used inventory in general was on a fast decline. And we’ve been 13 months of fast decline of inventory and dealers having nothing to sell. And so two months ago was the first time where we saw the flattening curve of that used inventory. And last month was the first time where it actually took an uptick, which is a huge, huge movement in the market, which is going to tell us what the next several months is going to do. Why is that happening? What are the dealers telling you? Yeah, you know, the dealers it’s been interesting, you know, with us, you know, having truck paper and being so involved with all the dealers that do business with us. It’s been months and forever where they haven’t had any new trucks hit the lot. Well, reps in the last couple of weeks is the first time that we’ve they’ve been coming off the road pretty jacked up that they’re hearing from dealers that they just received 40, 50 trucks, new trucks that is, hit the lot, you know, which is obviously producing used trade-ins and which is the reason that we saw that flattening happen. And now there’s an uptick. And, you know, I only anticipate that to, you know, go up as fast as it went down the last 12 months. So it very well could and with new trucks being sold, that brings in the trade-ins. And so your inventory is going down now. And we’re going to predict that that’s going to keep going And the last time you and I made these predictions, I think we did a really good job on what happened. And this is ticked down to fifty three point five percent. And it’s interesting. It’s going to continue to go down. Let’s look at page five on this report. You’ve got fifty five thousand seven hundred and ninety five for an inventory trend on your equipment value index, and that’s for the sleeper trucks, still. Talk to me about the divergence of these two lines, the green line and the blue line on this page. The green line is a perfect example that shows you that, you know, the fast decline of inventory on on dealer’s lots out there over the last, you know, a little over a year. Blue line, you know, obviously trails the green line a little bit, but it shows the increase in price. You know, as I mentioned, the la we saw the uptick or you saw th and the slight uptick of used inventory, the blue line being the price is going to keep climbing for the next several months. Not several, I’d say couple of months until end the Q3, Q4, where we anticipate seeing the downward shift in pricing. So, you know, if anything that you take out of this: if you got trucks to sell, now is the time to sell them, because there is going to be a major movement in the market. Based on the fact that that green line’s leveled out, that green line is going to start heading back up and the blue line is going to start heading back down again. Absolutely. As these new truck orders, you know, start coming in, you know, in greater masses than the 40 and 50 delivered, you’re going to see the used trucks come in and it’s going to be higher mileage trucks, more used trucks. If you have a low-houred truck, it’s going to be a premium price. And I anticipate that lower houred truck is going to stay at a premium price, but you’re going to have a massive amount of higher mileage trucks. And the older trucks are coming back. Last one on this: page 10 is the year over year variance. And it’s it’s a fascinating curve to look at. That’s the bar graph. And if you look at this twenty, twenty one the last quarter that you’ve got in the last markets, thirty eight point one percent increas over your baseline at zero percent almost unprecedented kind of price changes. And we’re going to anticipate that’s going to normalize out at some point. Yep. What do you think this has to say about the predictions or the for or against inflation You listen to one side and they say inflation is coming and you listen to the other side and they say, oh, it’s temporary. What do you think is going to happen with this, Mitch? I think just in general, I think inflation’s here just from what we’ve seen, prices just across everything has been going up. You know, it’s not going to naturally come back down. I think it’s you know, inflation is here to stay, maybe not to an extreme amount, but prices in general are… and people are going to get used to paying a little bit more for stuff and it’s not going to go anywhere. I think you’re right. And I don’t disagree with anything that you said, but we’ll see what happens. Mitch Helmen from Sandhills, I really appreciate your help today. David, thank you.